Is Sony's Blu-ray Disc technology set to suffer the same fate as Betamax VCRs?
Quite possibly, judging by the news from International Herald Tribune that Toshiba - Sony's deadly rival in the high-definition disc-player war - is licensing its HD DVD techology to Chinese manufacturers for low-cost production.
Although the parallels between the Betamax vs VHS war aren't precise, it's worth remembering that it was JVC's decision to widely license VHS that ended up being the deciding factor.
The one certain result of Toshiba's licensing decision is that set-top HD DVD players will be available at massively lower prices than Blu-ray players.
Confirming that prices of HD DVD are going to become very affordable, the AV Science Forum is reporting that Chinese manufacturer Fuh Yuan has signed a deal to make two million HD DVD players for the giant supermarket chain Walmart (owner of ASDA in the UK).
If HD DVD is pitched at affordable prices and Blu-ray stays out of reach of the masses, then the Toshiba system looks certain to grab the lion's share of the worldwide market for hi-def players and win the current formats war.
About the only thing that might keep Blu-ray Disc in with a shout is if it, too, gets licensed to the Chinese - and at an affordable rate.
If that doesn't happen, Blu-ray Disc might stagger on for few years but looks sure to eventually go to the wall as Betamax did.
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International Herald Tribune - In switch, Toshiba turns to ChinaAV Science Forum - Fuh Yuan will make two million HD-DVD players for Walmart
Wikipedia - Videotape format war
